This paper explores Italy's evolving foreign and security policy within the context of shifting geopolitical realities and elite power dynamics, presented at the international conference Defence and Security Policies: Europe at the Heart of a Transformation? [Joseph Karolyi Foundation / L'Harmattan]. It argues that Italy's foreign policy is shaped by its role as a medium power navigating the intersections of Atlantic, European, and Mediterranean geopolitical spheres. Historically, Italy balanced autonomy and alignment, leveraging its position as a bridge between Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian-Mediterranean realms. However, recent crises—such as the Russian-Ukrainian war, instability in Libya, and U.S.-China tensions—have forced Italy into a strategic recalibration.The paper identifies two structural forces driving this transformation: the rise of global multipolarity and the Euro-Atlantic integration process. It examines the constraints these forces impose on Italian political elites, particularly their need to align with dominant powers, often at the expense of national economic and geopolitical interests. Case studies of Italy's relations with Libya, Russia, and China reveal the challenges of maintaining an autonomous foreign policy amidst external pressures.
Italy’s response includes a strategic pivot to Africa and the Indo-Pacific, reflecting efforts to enhance energy security, address migration, and support Euro-Atlantic objectives. Despite these adaptations, Italy faces significant limitations, including resource constraints, demographic challenges, and the complexity of integrating Mediterranean and Indo-Pacific priorities. The analysis concludes that Italy's medium power status and geographic positioning compel it to pursue a delicate balance between regional stability, transatlantic alliances, and emerging global opportunities, albeit with uncertain prospects given the fragmentation of European strategic autonomy and persistent global conflicts.